A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
